New Atradius Reports

Two Atradius reports were recently published: “Economic Outlook Q1 2009: Recession Redux” and “Testing Times: Investing and Trading in Central & Eastern Europe.” The first report summarises economic developments and provides some guidance as to what we can expect in 2009. The conclusions are that given the current expectations for a deep economic contraction in 2009, the downturn will probably prove to be protracted. The second is a survey done with the Economic Intelligence Unit and shows that despite concerns about the regional economy, companies do not expect a significant deterioration of their business in Central and Eastern Europe in the next three years.

The Economic Outlook, written under the supervision of Atradius chief economist Gaurav Ganguly, discusses how, despite various bailouts and nationalisations, the banking sectors of both developed and emerging markets continue to face severe pressure. The stock markets are facing downward pressure and credit spreads remain elevated. Insolvencies are predicted to increase steeply across all major markets in 2009, and the banking system weaknesses and macroeconomic imbalances, in particular across Eastern European and CIS countries, leave many countries vulnerable in the current economic climate. To read the entire report, please click here

The survey on Central and Eastern Europe was conducted in November 2008 and questioned 300 senior executives from companies that are trading with or investing in the region. They realise that the CEE growth of recent years cannot continue at the same pace in the face of the global turndown. The findings reveal a generally positive outlook, although there are worries about the immediate economic outlook, and continued concerns about the business operating environment.The survey focused on the following countries: Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Serbia. To read the entire report, please click here